Ben Shelley: Islanders shouldn't use an offer sheet

Islanders are are at cross roads and the next turn they make will be significant. They have Belmont Park about to get the environmental state development approval tomorrow and that also plays a big part of this. In Lou We Trust 😉

Well-stated, Ben. As I believe you and others have stated, in a hard cap world, a team needs a combination of veteran talent and young talent to be a Cup contender. They won't be able to sign only veteran talent and stay under the Cap, so they require a pipeline of young talent coming up through the ranks. Giving away 4 1st rounders decimates that pipeline. Then when you factor in the reported $12.5 million/season being thrown around, and the reported 3-year maximum term that Marner was willing to accept, there's no way an offer sheet here makes sense.

Islanders are are at cross roads and the next turn they make will be significant. They have Belmont Park about to get the environmental state development approval tomorrow and that also plays a big part of this. In Lou We Trust 😉
- Sign guy

Hempstead Tpke. and Cross Island Pkwy.?

Hempstead Tpke. and Cross Island Pkwy.?
- JohnScammo

Yes they will be at those crossroads 2 years from now but in terms of improving the team now those are the current crossroads

Nobody wants to play on the Islanders...






Ask Panarin

Well-stated, Ben. As I believe you and others have stated, in a hard cap world, a team needs a combination of veteran talent and young talent to be a Cup contender. They won't be able to sign only veteran talent and stay under the Cap, so they require a pipeline of young talent coming up through the ranks. Giving away 4 1st rounders decimates that pipeline. Then when you factor in the reported $12.5 million/season being thrown around, and the reported 3-year maximum term that Marner was willing to accept, there's no way an offer sheet here makes sense.
-JohnScammo

That is not true. Marner is an elite player. You dont have to go crazy and give him 14 mill. 11-12 max. Chances are the Isles are not going to get someone of Marner's quality in the next 4 years from the draft. I personally dont know what the Isles prospect lineup looks like right now but if you got a bunch of young guys down there alreay with a lot of promise there is little risk to this. Marner is a young player. That being said, if you make this offer, it needs to be long term. Isles can always make a side deal as well to flip some of those picks back.

As long as you got your core, the rest can be added during FA period. Marner is a core piece.

Why?

Look, I'm a Hawks fan chiming in but this logic isn't very solid..

If you have a better team at the end of the day and with the addition of Marner you become a contender, what does it matter? you would be drafting between 20 and 31/32.... How many late first round picks will go on to be a Marner type of player? not many, the odds are against the Islanders if they think 4 late first round picks will become a player like Marner.... Depth players or even players that could potentially fit in the top 6, sure, but Marner is a budding superstar..... So you absolutely offer-sheet Marner.... Lou would be crazy not to, even for reasons of revenge.... If I was an NHL GM I would absolutely offer-sheet Marner if I had a sound farm system, I had the cap space and did the math on just how good late first round picks become.... Yes, of course I would take a hit on depth, but there are plenty of ways to acquire depth...

Of course trading for Marner's RFA rights would be more likely, If I was a GM that would be my first approach before an offer-sheet... Perhaps Toronto would want some warm bodies that can help now for depth instead of the picks?

As far as the Marner situation:

I mean I don't even comprehend why Marner hasn't signed and offer-sheet... If I were him I would refuse to sign in Toronto - the Tavares signing would have pissed me off a year ago... I mean there are only 2 scenarios there - 1. Toronto bet against Marner being as great as he was hence making less, or 2. betting that Marner would "take a discount" while Tavares makes 11 million a season, but Marner should make less despite the fact he lead the team in scoring and is younger??? yea, put yourself in Marners position - Toronto blew the cap space that was designated for Marner, Matthews and Nylander on Tavares .... Why the hell should Marner sign in Toronto?

Look, if I'm Mitch Marner I'm NOT signing in Toronto, not after getting basically stabbed in the back after leading the team in scoring, then getting bounced in the first round with a stacked team .... I will mull over offer-sheets and select the best fit for me, but Toronto would be out of the question - I would LEAF (no pun, lol) the team without a second thought...

What Dubas and Shanahan did was pretty outrageous.... I mean it's not a situation like Marner was a 5th round pick, came out of nowhere and lead the team in scoring 2 years in a row -- no -- those two fools damn well knew Matthews, Nylander and Marner were going to need raises, they had the cap space to make all of that happen but blew it on "Mr. Hometown Boy" Tavares..... They were greedy... All Marner wants is a fair contract and Toronto cant give it to them because they gave his money to Tavares essentially...

And Leafs fans CAN'T blame Marner when he does sign an offer-sheet and Toronto is forced to trade more depth to match or let him walk...

The most likely scenario is Toronto trades Marners rights IMO, and I do like the Islanders as a landing spot for him, but he could obviously land anywhere and IMO, I really wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks landed him -- Stan Bowman can surprise... And I'm saying this because when the Hawks signed Hossa, I remember what Bowman said: "when you have an opportunity to obtain a player of Hossa's skill-set, you take advantage of the opportunity"...

I suppose my point is that, Toronto cant afford Marner, and if I were in Marners shoes I would be pissed off and I'm absolutely certain that Toronto has been proposed many trade scenarios for Marner and that a trade for his RFA rights will eventually happen...

Of course I predicted all of this insanity the second Tavares signed in Toronto, heck even before that because even Toronto fans at the time when there were rumblings of Tavares signing in Toronto were like "we don't have the cap space to make it work" and I agreed, however I also thought maybe they could make a run for the Cup and won it then perhaps it would be worth it if they lost one of Matthews, Nylander or Marner???.... Of course they did sign Tavares and got bounced in the first round - that is a total face palm....

Look, I'm a Hawks fan so none of this really affects the Hawks, tho as a person it kinda pisses me off how Toronto treated Marner with their "take one for the team" nonsense and even some fans calling Marner greedy - which is absolutely asinine considering all he wants is fair market value, and 12.5 really isn't that insane when you consider what the cap will be in 5 years.....

Why?

Look, I'm a Hawks fan chiming in but this logic isn't very solid..

If you have a better team at the end of the day and with the addition of Marner you become a contender, what does it matter? you would be drafting between 20 and 31/32.... How many late first round picks will go on to be a Marner type of player? not many, the odds are against the Islanders if they think 4 late first round picks will become a player like Marner.... Depth players or even players that could potentially fit in the top 6, sure, but Marner is a budding superstar..... So you absolutely offer-sheet Marner.... Lou would be crazy not to, even for reasons of revenge.... If I was an NHL GM I would absolutely offer-sheet Marner if I had a sound farm system, I had the cap space and did the math on just how good late first round picks become.... Yes, of course I would take a hit on depth, but there are plenty of ways to acquire depth...

Of course trading for Marner's RFA rights would be more likely, If I was a GM that would be my first approach before an offer-sheet... Perhaps Toronto would want some warm bodies that can help now for depth instead of the picks?

As far as the Marner situation:

I mean I don't even comprehend why Marner hasn't signed and offer-sheet... If I were him I would refuse to sign in Toronto - the Tavares signing would have pissed me off a year ago... I mean there are only 2 scenarios there - 1. Toronto bet against Marner being as great as he was hence making less, or 2. betting that Marner would "take a discount" while Tavares makes 11 million a season, but Marner should make less despite the fact he lead the team in scoring and is younger??? yea, put yourself in Marners position - Toronto blew the cap space that was designated for Marner, Matthews and Nylander on Tavares .... Why the hell should Marner sign in Toronto?

Look, if I'm Mitch Marner I'm NOT signing in Toronto, not after getting basically stabbed in the back after leading the team in scoring, then getting bounced in the first round with a stacked team .... I will mull over offer-sheets and select the best fit for me, but Toronto would be out of the question - I would LEAF (no pun, lol) the team without a second thought...

What Dubas and Shanahan did was pretty outrageous.... I mean it's not a situation like Marner was a 5th round pick, came out of nowhere and lead the team in scoring 2 years in a row -- no -- those two fools damn well knew Matthews, Nylander and Marner were going to need raises, they had the cap space to make all of that happen but blew it on "Mr. Hometown Boy" Tavares..... They were greedy... All Marner wants is a fair contract and Toronto cant give it to them because they gave his money to Tavares essentially...

And Leafs fans CAN'T blame Marner when he does sign an offer-sheet and Toronto is forced to trade more depth to match or let him walk...

The most likely scenario is Toronto trades Marners rights IMO, and I do like the Islanders as a landing spot for him, but he could obviously land anywhere and IMO, I really wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks landed him -- Stan Bowman can surprise... And I'm saying this because when the Hawks signed Hossa, I remember what Bowman said: "when you have an opportunity to obtain a player of Hossa's skill-set, you take advantage of the opportunity"...

I suppose my point is that, Toronto cant afford Marner, and if I were in Marners shoes I would be pissed off and I'm absolutely certain that Toronto has been proposed many trade scenarios for Marner and that a trade for his RFA rights will eventually happen...

Of course I predicted all of this insanity the second Tavares signed in Toronto, heck even before that because even Toronto fans at the time when there were rumblings of Tavares signing in Toronto were like "we don't have the cap space to make it work" and I agreed, however I also thought maybe they could make a run for the Cup and won it then perhaps it would be worth it if they lost one of Matthews, Nylander or Marner???.... Of course they did sign Tavares and got bounced in the first round - that is a total face palm....

Look, I'm a Hawks fan so none of this really affects the Hawks, tho as a person it kinda pisses me off how Toronto treated Marner with their "take one for the team" nonsense and even some fans calling Marner greedy - which is absolutely asinine considering all he wants is fair market value, and 12.5 really isn't that insane when you consider what the cap will be in 5 years.....
- Savard2Secord

What in the actual (frank) of all that is (frank)ly

Why?

Look, I'm a Hawks fan chiming in but this logic isn't very solid..

If you have a better team at the end of the day and with the addition of Marner you become a contender, what does it matter? you would be drafting between 20 and 31/32.... How many late first round picks will go on to be a Marner type of player? not many, the odds are against the Islanders if they think 4 late first round picks will become a player like Marner.... Depth players or even players that could potentially fit in the top 6, sure, but Marner is a budding superstar..... So you absolutely offer-sheet Marner.... Lou would be crazy not to, even for reasons of revenge.... If I was an NHL GM I would absolutely offer-sheet Marner if I had a sound farm system, I had the cap space and did the math on just how good late first round picks become.... Yes, of course I would take a hit on depth, but there are plenty of ways to acquire depth...

Of course trading for Marner's RFA rights would be more likely, If I was a GM that would be my first approach before an offer-sheet... Perhaps Toronto would want some warm bodies that can help now for depth instead of the picks?

As far as the Marner situation:

I mean I don't even comprehend why Marner hasn't signed and offer-sheet... If I were him I would refuse to sign in Toronto - the Tavares signing would have pissed me off a year ago... I mean there are only 2 scenarios there - 1. Toronto bet against Marner being as great as he was hence making less, or 2. betting that Marner would "take a discount" while Tavares makes 11 million a season, but Marner should make less despite the fact he lead the team in scoring and is younger??? yea, put yourself in Marners position - Toronto blew the cap space that was designated for Marner, Matthews and Nylander on Tavares .... Why the hell should Marner sign in Toronto?

Look, if I'm Mitch Marner I'm NOT signing in Toronto, not after getting basically stabbed in the back after leading the team in scoring, then getting bounced in the first round with a stacked team .... I will mull over offer-sheets and select the best fit for me, but Toronto would be out of the question - I would LEAF (no pun, lol) the team without a second thought...

What Dubas and Shanahan did was pretty outrageous.... I mean it's not a situation like Marner was a 5th round pick, came out of nowhere and lead the team in scoring 2 years in a row -- no -- those two fools damn well knew Matthews, Nylander and Marner were going to need raises, they had the cap space to make all of that happen but blew it on "Mr. Hometown Boy" Tavares..... They were greedy... All Marner wants is a fair contract and Toronto cant give it to them because they gave his money to Tavares essentially...

And Leafs fans CAN'T blame Marner when he does sign an offer-sheet and Toronto is forced to trade more depth to match or let him walk...

The most likely scenario is Toronto trades Marners rights IMO, and I do like the Islanders as a landing spot for him, but he could obviously land anywhere and IMO, I really wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks landed him -- Stan Bowman can surprise... And I'm saying this because when the Hawks signed Hossa, I remember what Bowman said: "when you have an opportunity to obtain a player of Hossa's skill-set, you take advantage of the opportunity"...

I suppose my point is that, Toronto cant afford Marner, and if I were in Marners shoes I would be pissed off and I'm absolutely certain that Toronto has been proposed many trade scenarios for Marner and that a trade for his RFA rights will eventually happen...

Of course I predicted all of this insanity the second Tavares signed in Toronto, heck even before that because even Toronto fans at the time when there were rumblings of Tavares signing in Toronto were like "we don't have the cap space to make it work" and I agreed, however I also thought maybe they could make a run for the Cup and won it then perhaps it would be worth it if they lost one of Matthews, Nylander or Marner???.... Of course they did sign Tavares and got bounced in the first round - that is a total face palm....

Look, I'm a Hawks fan so none of this really affects the Hawks, tho as a person it kinda pisses me off how Toronto treated Marner with their "take one for the team" nonsense and even some fans calling Marner greedy - which is absolutely asinine considering all he wants is fair market value, and 12.5 really isn't that insane when you consider what the cap will be in 5 years.....
- Savard2Secord

Could you elaborate?

What if they offered Marner 10.5 for 5 years. Would that keep the compensation to only 2 1st a 2nd and a 3rd?

Well-stated, Ben. As I believe you and others have stated, in a hard cap world, a team needs a combination of veteran talent and young talent to be a Cup contender. They won't be able to sign only veteran talent and stay under the Cap, so they require a pipeline of young talent coming up through the ranks. Giving away 4 1st rounders decimates that pipeline. Then when you factor in the reported $12.5 million/season being thrown around, and the reported 3-year maximum term that Marner was willing to accept, there's no way an offer sheet here makes sense.
- JohnScammo

Thank you, agreed!

What in the actual (frank) of all that is (frank)ly
- walshyleafsfan

😂

What if they offered Marner 10.5 for 5 years. Would that keep the compensation to only 2 1st a 2nd and a 3rd?
- maximumcarnage

Leafs would match. It’s not happening.

Could you elaborate?
- aaron12

Hey, it's what I do.... I'm not lazy, lol and I have no issue explaining my rationale...

If you want me to go deeper I can..

That is not true. Marner is an elite player. You dont have to go crazy and give him 14 mill. 11-12 max. Chances are the Isles are not going to get someone of Marner's quality in the next 4 years from the draft. I personally dont know what the Isles prospect lineup looks like right now but if you got a bunch of young guys down there alreay with a lot of promise there is little risk to this. Marner is a young player. That being said, if you make this offer, it needs to be long term. Isles can always make a side deal as well to flip some of those picks back.

As long as you got your core, the rest can be added during FA period. Marner is a core piece.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

So you want to give away 4 first round picks for a "core piece" who probably leaves the core after 3 years? He'd be gone and you STILL wouldn't have that first round pick back. In other words, in that 4th year, the Isles could easily be a lottery team, so the pick they traded away wouldn't be in the 20s.

Leafs would match. It’s not happening.
- Cptmjl

I just feel if the leafs were willing or be able to stay under the cap a deal would be done already.

What if they offered Marner 10.5 for 5 years. Would that keep the compensation to only 2 1st a 2nd and a 3rd?
- maximumcarnage

It would, but for $10.5 x 5 Toronto is almost surely matching. Even if Toronto decided they couldn't afford it, they likely still match it and use the summer to move the contract (or others) in the period where they can be 10% over the cap, because they're likely to be able to bring back more than 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd from someone in a Marner trade.

Thanks for reading!

Could you elaborate?
- aaron12

What if they offered Marner 10.5 for 5 years. Would that keep the compensation to only 2 1st a 2nd and a 3rd?
- maximumcarnage

The Leafs would match that..... 12.5 is more likely if he gets an offer-sheet... However I see his rights being traded.... Toronto cant just lose him for picks, they're certainly going to want someone that can produce now...

The Leafs would match that..... 12.5 is more likely if he gets an offer-sheet... However I see his rights being traded.... Toronto cant just lose him for picks, they're certainly going to want someone that can produce now...
- Savard2Secord

Couldn't they trade those picks for someone that can produce now?

That is not true. Marner is an elite player. You dont have to go crazy and give him 14 mill. 11-12 max. Chances are the Isles are not going to get someone of Marner's quality in the next 4 years from the draft. I personally dont know what the Isles prospect lineup looks like right now but if you got a bunch of young guys down there alreay with a lot of promise there is little risk to this. Marner is a young player. That being said, if you make this offer, it needs to be long term. Isles can always make a side deal as well to flip some of those picks back.

As long as you got your core, the rest can be added during FA period. Marner is a core piece.
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

Fair points. Isles have some prospect depth on D but Wahlstrom is arguably the only top-tier forward prospect. Should've included this, but it's been reported Marner isn't looking for a long-term deal/offer sheet either.

Though I like to see Liane in this team. You can teach skating but his scoring touch is something special.

Why?

Look, I'm a Hawks fan chiming in but this logic isn't very solid..

If you have a better team at the end of the day and with the addition of Marner you become a contender, what does it matter? you would be drafting between 20 and 31/32.... How many late first round picks will go on to be a Marner type of player? not many, the odds are against the Islanders if they think 4 late first round picks will become a player like Marner.... Depth players or even players that could potentially fit in the top 6, sure, but Marner is a budding superstar..... So you absolutely offer-sheet Marner.... Lou would be crazy not to, even for reasons of revenge.... If I was an NHL GM I would absolutely offer-sheet Marner if I had a sound farm system, I had the cap space and did the math on just how good late first round picks become.... Yes, of course I would take a hit on depth, but there are plenty of ways to acquire depth...

Of course trading for Marner's RFA rights would be more likely, If I was a GM that would be my first approach before an offer-sheet... Perhaps Toronto would want some warm bodies that can help now for depth instead of the picks?

As far as the Marner situation:

I mean I don't even comprehend why Marner hasn't signed and offer-sheet... If I were him I would refuse to sign in Toronto - the Tavares signing would have pissed me off a year ago... I mean there are only 2 scenarios there - 1. Toronto bet against Marner being as great as he was hence making less, or 2. betting that Marner would "take a discount" while Tavares makes 11 million a season, but Marner should make less despite the fact he lead the team in scoring and is younger??? yea, put yourself in Marners position - Toronto blew the cap space that was designated for Marner, Matthews and Nylander on Tavares .... Why the hell should Marner sign in Toronto?

Look, if I'm Mitch Marner I'm NOT signing in Toronto, not after getting basically stabbed in the back after leading the team in scoring, then getting bounced in the first round with a stacked team .... I will mull over offer-sheets and select the best fit for me, but Toronto would be out of the question - I would LEAF (no pun, lol) the team without a second thought...

What Dubas and Shanahan did was pretty outrageous.... I mean it's not a situation like Marner was a 5th round pick, came out of nowhere and lead the team in scoring 2 years in a row -- no -- those two fools damn well knew Matthews, Nylander and Marner were going to need raises, they had the cap space to make all of that happen but blew it on "Mr. Hometown Boy" Tavares..... They were greedy... All Marner wants is a fair contract and Toronto cant give it to them because they gave his money to Tavares essentially...

And Leafs fans CAN'T blame Marner when he does sign an offer-sheet and Toronto is forced to trade more depth to match or let him walk...

The most likely scenario is Toronto trades Marners rights IMO, and I do like the Islanders as a landing spot for him, but he could obviously land anywhere and IMO, I really wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks landed him -- Stan Bowman can surprise... And I'm saying this because when the Hawks signed Hossa, I remember what Bowman said: "when you have an opportunity to obtain a player of Hossa's skill-set, you take advantage of the opportunity"...

I suppose my point is that, Toronto cant afford Marner, and if I were in Marners shoes I would be pissed off and I'm absolutely certain that Toronto has been proposed many trade scenarios for Marner and that a trade for his RFA rights will eventually happen...

Of course I predicted all of this insanity the second Tavares signed in Toronto, heck even before that because even Toronto fans at the time when there were rumblings of Tavares signing in Toronto were like "we don't have the cap space to make it work" and I agreed, however I also thought maybe they could make a run for the Cup and won it then perhaps it would be worth it if they lost one of Matthews, Nylander or Marner???.... Of course they did sign Tavares and got bounced in the first round - that is a total face palm....

Look, I'm a Hawks fan so none of this really affects the Hawks, tho as a person it kinda pisses me off how Toronto treated Marner with their "take one for the team" nonsense and even some fans calling Marner greedy - which is absolutely asinine considering all he wants is fair market value, and 12.5 really isn't that insane when you consider what the cap will be in 5 years.....
- Savard2Secord

I think this is longer than my article- I'm sincerely impressed by the effort to write this.

I'd argue the Isles aren't necessarily an immediate contender even with Marner. Obviously that's a huge addition but one player isn't going to propel them into Cup contention.

I also don't think he's upset whatsoever by the Tavares signing. It's been reported that he was very heavily involved in recruiting Tavares, being a huge part of the Leafs presentation video.

Thanks for reading!

If you want me to go deeper I can

Bet that's what you tell all the girls